Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan Won't Accept NRA's Money, Support
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan says if the National Rifle Association comes calling again, he’s not going to pick up the phone.
At a recent meeting with student activists from Great Mills High School, the site of a deadly shooting in March, the governor said he wouldn’t accept money or support from the NRA in this year’s governor’s race after winning their endorsement in 2014.
Mr. Hogan’s break from the gun-rights group, coupled with his support for new gun controls during his governorship in office, could serve to defuse a major rallying cry for the left as he works to navigate a path to re-election in his deep-blue state.
Earlier this year, for example, he signed a “red flag” law that aims to let families petition a court to take guns from potentially dangerous people, along with measures to ban “bump stock” devices and bar convicted domestic abusers from possessing guns.
For its part, the NRA said it hasn’t yet made concrete decisions on what they’ll do in the election.
“When you are about to be a two-term governor as a Republican in one of the most liberal states in the country, you sort of get to pick and choose how close to the party line you embrace core issues,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.
Will Mueller Subpoena Trump? Move Carries Risks For Both Sides
The months-long dance between President Trump’s lawyers and Robert Mueller over a voluntary presidential interview has yet to bear fruit, raising the question of whether the special counsel will subpoena the president to testify as part of his Russia probe.
Those who know Mueller professionally say he would not hesitate to compel Trump to testify under oath before a grand jury if he considered it critical that his investigation include testimony from the commander in chief.
Still, such a move would carry risks for both sides, agitating tensions between the White House and the special counsel’s office and potentially triggering a legal battle that could lead all the way to the Supreme Court.
Trump first signaled in January that he was eager to speak to Mueller under oath to show there was no collusion between his campaign and Moscow in 2016. Since then, the president’s lawyers say they have been trading proposals with Mueller’s team on the ground rules for an interview. No agreement has been reached.
Trump indicated in an August interview with Reuters that he is now leaning against sitting down with Mueller, fearing it could be a “perjury trap.”
If Trump declines a voluntary interview with the special counsel, Mueller could subpoena him — thereby compelling the president to answer questions under oath before a grand jury. Trump’s lawyers would most likely mount a legal challenge that could lead to a months-long court fight.
Issuing a subpoena also would likely lead to fresh attacks from the president and his Republican allies. Trump has regularly disparaged the Russia investigation as a political “witch hunt,” and on Thursday he told Bloomberg News that he believes the special counsel investigation is “illegal.”
“I think [Mueller’s prosecutors] would be crossing a line and, look, I also think that might play into the president’s hands,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. “President Trump wants to fight this out in public because of what he, or the administration, sees as brutal prosecutorial tactics by the special counsel.”
But challenging a grand jury subpoena could also risk giving the appearance that Trump is not cooperating with the investigation, which his critics would undoubtedly seize on.
Republicans Will Need More Than The Economy To Hold The House
President Trump recently injected some reality into his 2018 “red wave” talk. He acknowledged at the Ohio Republican Party’s annual dinner that it will be “probably tougher” for Congressional Republicans to hold the House than the Senate in this year’s midterm elections.
Trump would be correct. 2018 is a tale of two different midterm electionswith control of the Senate currently favoring Republicans and control of the House approaching nightmare status for the Grand Old Party.
History suggests that Republicans will lose the House. In midterm elections between 1934 and 2014, the president’s party lost, on average, 27 House seats, with the average first-term loss being 25 seats. Given that Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats for a majority in the House, this statistic alone is an ominous sign.
Adding insult to injury for the red team is the fact there are 43 open Republican House seats now without an incumbent on the ballot; a modern record. When combining these two items, it is easy to see why The Hill’s Reid Wilson contends that Republicans could lose anywhere from 72 House seats to as few as 10 or that election prognosticator FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Democrats a better than 71 percent chance to win control of the House.
There is still time for Republicans to flip the script, but the clock is ticking. Yes, Republicans could conceivably hold the House but one thing is pretty certain, they are going to lose seats in the lower chamber of Congress.
The primary issue for House Republicans is staring them right in the face. They have an enthusiasm gap problem. Democrats are beyond fired up. For them, 2018 is personal, and they are focused on one thing – taking down President Trump. This is best evidenced in a recent Fox News poll. According to the survey, 76 percent of Clinton voters are certain they will vote this fall. Among Trump voters that figure is only 67 percent.
5 Things We Learned From Tuesday's Primaries And What They Mean For November
Nominees for midterm election races were decided in three states Tuesday, and the results set up ideological showdowns between pro-Trump and anti-Trump forces that could determine control of the Senate and reveal how broad the appeal of progressive policies is.
On the Republican side, Rep. Ron DeSantis defeated Adam Putnam in the Florida gubernatorial primary, Rep. Martha McSally won the nomination for Jeff Flake’s Senate seat, and political novice Kevin Stitt secured the nomination for governor of Oklahoma.
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum won the Democratic nomination to face off with DeSantis, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema easily won the Democratic primary for the Arizona Senate seat, and Democratic nominee Drew Edmondson leads Stitt slightly in polling for the Oklahoma governor’s race.
The night’s results do not clearly fit any one political narrative, with establishment candidates holding on in some races and insurgents pulling off big wins in others. If nothing else, the general election matchups will make for an interesting and intense Nov. 6.
“If you’re a political watcher, you’re in for a treat in Florida and Arizona,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Florida is the main event, but Arizona ain’t too shabby.”
Steve Bannon's Open Revolt Against GOP Establishment Sputters
Steve Bannon entered the 2018 election cycle vowing to run primary challengers against nearly every Republican incumbent, looking to shake the party establishment to its core.
The establishment, however, appears to have won.
Mr. Bannon took his latest blow Tuesday in Arizona, where former state Sen. Kelli Ward, one of his earliest recruits, fell to Rep. Martha McSally, a more establishment-minded candidate, in the battle for the Republican nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake.
Her loss followed similar failures by Bannon-backed candidates in Wisconsin, where his Senate pick lost in a primary this month, in Nevada, where his preferred Senate candidate dropped out and is running for a lower office, and in Alabama, where Roy Moore squandered a seat long held by Republicans in a special election late last year.
Prince William Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey A. Stewart, meanwhile, eked out a primary win in Virginia, and Mr. Bannon backed winners in Senate Republican primaries in Tennessee, West Virginia and Montana, where the candidates were established political figures before Mr. Bannongave them his blessing.
But political observers say Mr. Bannon usually came up short in races where tried to play kingmaker.
“The problem is that the ones that Bannon tried to mold or had a hand in molding wound up failing and the ones that were the best options to begin with or well-known in their states wound up winning,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican Party strategist.
Mr. O’Connell said the Trump world appears to have settled on a strategy of backing candidates they believe are best-equipped to win competitive general election races and when possible get behind Trump-like candidates.
Jeff Sessions’ Seat Grows Hot As GOP Senators Fan Flames
Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ job appears increasingly in peril as key Senate Republicans who once dismissed the idea of his firing are now signaling his replaceability.
Until now, President Trump’s public ire at Sessions over his recusal from the Russia investigation had been seen as mostly symbolic. Sessions was protected by the conventional wisdom of Senate Republicans that any attempt to confirm his replacement during the ongoing probe by Special Counsel Robert Mueller would be a political nightmare — or even a constitutional crisis.
Last year, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham told reporters that if Trump fired Sessions, “there’d be holy hell to pay.”
Now the South Carolina Republican, who has had Trump’s ear in recent months, has reversed course — a key signal that Sessions’ days could be numbered.
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley told Bloomberg News that he could squeeze a confirmation hearing for attorney general into the jam-packed fall schedule that includes the hearing for Supreme Court hopeful Brett Kavanaugh. Earlier this year he said such a scheduling feat would be impossible.
That’s bad news for Sessions. The good news: He has the public support of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who understands that the stakes may still be too high.
“I do not see Trump firing AG Sessions before the 2018 midterms because of the possible political blowback at the ballot box,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, adding that a post-election firing is “a real possibility.”
Jeff Sessions Suddenly Looks Vulnerable
Attorney General Jeff Sessions has been in plenty of public battles with President Trump, but this week's tense exchange between the two now have some thinking that Sessions may be on the way out.
Most Republicans continued to defend Sessions after his latest fight with Trump over Twitter, but a few cracks showed this time around — signs that the Senate is coming to grips with the idea of replacing Sessions in the near future.
One Trump ally, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., talked openly about the clock running out on Sessions after more than a year of Trump's obvious frustration with his attorney general.
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who also warned last year that he wouldn’t hold a confirmation hearing for a new attorney general, signaled in an interview with Bloomberg News that he might be able to make time for a hearing.
Those reactions have some observers saying the writing is on the wall, and Sessions' career might be numbered in months.
Ford O’Connell, a political analyst and Republican strategist, told the Washington Examiner that he can’t imagine Trump firing Sessions before the midterms “because of the possible political blowback at the ballot box.”
“No need to insert another factor into the equation as Republicans fight to hold the House and Senate," he said. But after the election is a different story.
"Should Republicans hold the Senate following the midterms — the firing of Sessions is a very real possibility,” O’Connell said, pointing to Grassley and Graham’s recent comments.
Trump Opponents Have Raised Nearly $2 Million In Legal Fees Through Crowdfunding
Crowdfunding sites have allowed millions of people to raise money for their causes, including a growing number of individuals ejected from President Donald Trump's orbit who have raised nearly $2 million from online donors.
In recent months, four people who found themselves on the wrong side of the law and the wrong side of the Trump White House have garnered tremendous public support with tens of thousands of mostly anonymous, small donors offering money to pay for lawyers fees, personal damages and lost income.
Former Trump allies, like Roger Stone or former campaign aide Michael Caputo, have also turned to crowdfunding sites to help them lawyer-up and navigate relations with Robert Mueller's special counsel and related investigations. However, these campaigns have been far less successful than those involving Trump's public adversaries.
Crowdfunding is a useful tool to fund political or personal causes on either side of the aisle. It just happens that the high-profile opponents of President Donald Trump have been the most effective in leveraging the public spotlight to raise large amounts of money for their personal, legal causes.
"This is all about getting Trump," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "These are not real charity cases. It just tells you how raw the emotions are on the side of the resistance."
"No one wants to be looking down the barrel of a special counsel investigation or federal prosecutors trying to throw you in jail," O'Connell said. "Maybe it becomes profitable later on, but right now you don't want to be forking over money to save your own hide."
Wyoming GOP Primary Tests The Limits Of Trumpism
His longtime attorney Michael Cohen had just pleaded guilty to eight criminal counts. His former campaign chairman Paul Manafort had just been convicted by a federal jury. But on Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump stood before a packed stadium in West Virginia.
Delivering his greatest hits—from leading “Lock her up!” chants to castigating Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation as a “Russian witch hunt”—Trump brought in his full campaign spectacle to endorse Republican senate candidate Patrick Morrisey.
Despite mounting legal exposure in the Russia investigation, the White House confirmed on Tuesday that the president will spend 40 days campaigning for Republican candidates. However, within hours of the Cohen-Manafort fallout, halfway across the country, the Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Foster Friess was defeated in a Wyoming primary, raising questions over the limits of Trumpism in this year’s midterm elections.
Friess’ loss to Wyoming’s state treasurer Mark Gordon seemed to mirror last fall’s messy election in Alabama: Trump’s preferred candidate Luther Strange was beaten out by the Steve Bannon-aligned Roy Moore. Even after Trump endorsed Moore in the general election, the candidate lost following accusations of sexual misconduct—handing a longtime GOP stronghold to Democrats.
Not all Republican operatives see Tuesday’s race as a loss for Trumpism, and many have been quick to note Trump’s success in getting West Virginia voters to reject the fringe candidate Don Blankenship.
“Primaries are different than general election. Trump has a lot more sway in a GOP primary, but this is a race where Mark Gordon was going to win anyway,” political analyst Ford O’Connell, a veteran of John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, told Observer. “You can’t win them all, but he’s had a pretty good track record after the flop in Alabama in terms of helping sway who the primary voters pick.”
“In the Senate races, Donald Trump is wanted because, essentially, he’s going to drive those races in terms of pickup,” added the campaign veteran.
O’Connell, however, thinks it’s unwise for Republicans to distance themselves from the president’s populist messaging and does not anticipate further disruptions from the Russia investigation.
“Some suburban Republicans, or Republicans in larger purple states may choose to keep Donald Trump at arms length, but running away from President Trump by anyone is a fool’s errand,” said Ford. “I also think you’re probably going to see the Special Counsel go dark until after the midterms because I think it was probably in their mindset to get these headlines wrapped up before labor day. It would be a little bit odd if the guy investigating election interference himself interfered with an election.”
