Seven major candidates entered the Iowa caucuses Tuesday, but as many as four could drop out before the GOP nomination battle shifts to Florida Jan. 31.

While Iowa was not expected to anoint a frontrunner as it has occasionally in the past, it will start a winnowing process that New Hampshire and South Carolina will continue over the next three weeks, dramatically reshaping the field.

When Florida votes, it would not be a surprise to see Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry out of the running, said David Johnson, an Atlanta-based Republican political consultant.

“There is no way they all survive to Florida,” Johnson said of the current field.

If the field is trimmed as expected, Florida could be in the same position as in 2008, when it catapulted John McCain to the Republican nomination.

Florida may loom largest for Mitt Romney, said Ford O’Connell, a veteran Republican campaign strategist from Virginia. O’Connell said that if Romney wins Florida, it could secure his path to the nomination. But losing Florida would continue the narrative of a candidate struggling to win the base, which would almost assure a drawn out fight with alternative conservatives.

Romney must hope that Perry and Gingrich remain in the race and split the “anti-Mitt” vote. If one is out by Florida, it could allow voters wary of Romney to unite behind one candidate, O’Connell said.

The only certainty for Florida’s ballot is that Romney and Ron Paul will be fighting for the Sunshine State. Both campaigns have the staff network, volunteers and money to push to Florida and beyond.

Read more from Jeremy Wallace at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune

If the social conservative vote consolidates behind Rick Santorum, it may well propel him to a top-two finish in Iowa. That said, Santorum will not win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, which is still Mitt Romney's to lose.

Read more from Ford O'Connell at Politico's "The Arena"

Re-Posted From The Daily Caller

Only two candidates are slated to be on the 2012 Virginia Republican presidential primary ballot. The mainstream media is choosing to frame this predicament as evidence of which GOP candidates are running “serious” campaigns and which are not. But this media-driven narrative largely misses the mark.

The real loser in this ordeal is likely to be the eventual GOP presidential nominee.

Ron Paul's isolationist foreign policy is beyond dangerous given the instability around the world, particularly with regard to Iran, North Korea and China. While Dr. Paul is correct to challenge America's role as the world's policeman, the U.S. must be able to act appropriately when her security interests, economic interests and allies (Israel, South Korea, etc.) are at risk. Something tells me that the tyrannical leadership in Iran and North Korea would lean towards sanctioning Dr. Paul's presidential bid.

Read more from Ford O'Connell at Politico's "The Arena"

The 2012 caucuses and primaries are finally upon us, and now it can be said: Iowa and New Hampshire may be a thing of the past.

What's fading is not their place in the celestial order as hosts of the first nominating contests, but rather their outsize role in personally sizing up Republican nominees.

An obscure Democratic governor named Jimmy Carterset the paradigm in 1975, when he essentially took up residence in Iowa and shook countless hands on his way to becoming the top named vote-getter in the 1976 caucuses. The Georgia governor's upset victory set him on a path to the presidency.

When Iowa Republicans caucus on Jan. 3, chances are the voters will know more about the candidates from nationally televised debates and interviews than from personal interaction. Ditto the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10.

"If the protester is Time's person of the year, then the debate is the primaries' theme of the year," says Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.

Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor

Republican dissatisfaction over the field of GOP 2012 presidential candidates has again thrust former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush into the rumormill.

After Bush wrote an essay for the Wall Street Journal about the importance of capitalism in America, the rumors swirled that Bush was going to make a last-minute bid to take on President Barack Obama in 2012.

Bush stopped the chatter quickly with an email to Politico stating simply: “not running.”

It’s at least the second time since October Bush has had to shoot down rumors that he is angling for a White House run.

Republican political consultant Ford O’Connell said the recent two-day non-story shows just how the current field has failed to ignite the enthusiasm among the core Republican voters.

“With the Republican base there is some worry that whoever they nominate can’t beat Barack Obama,” O’Connell said.

O’Connell said Bush is the perfect candidate because he has elected experience, yet has been in private business, too.

Bush may insist he is out for 2012, but O’Connell said if Obama wins re-election, Bush will be at the top of the list as GOP contenders for 2016.

“He is the Republican front runner for 2016,” O’Connell said.

Read more from Jeremy Wallace at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner on Thursday caved in to a growing chorus of criticism from both within and outside his Republican party and agreed to a short-term deal to extend a payroll tax cut for 160 million Americans.

In a major reversal that appeared to end a standoff with Democrats, Boehner told Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid he would set a vote in the House on a Senate-passed two-month extension of the payroll tax cut.

The Republicans' about-face contrasts with a year of dominance in Congress, in which their staunch opposition to higher taxes and spending has yielded a string of political successes. Their backpedalling this time handed a rare victory to President Barack Obama and Democrats.

"We have fought the good fight. Why not do the right thing for the American people even though it's not exactly what we want," Boehner told a news conference.

Republican leaders feared fierce backlash from voters in the 2012 elections and many Republican lawmakers were already getting an earful from constituents back home. Had the deal failed to materialize, they were looking at an effective $1,000-a-year tax increase on the average worker starting on January 1.

"If they had continued to dig in on this they risked losing the Senate in 2012 and handing President Obama the election without even having a fight," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist.

That said, Republicans will be back at the negotiating table in the first two months of the year - in the middle of the Republican primaries for 2012.

Read more from Thomas Ferraro and Richard Cowan at Reuters

Congressman Paul is extremely dangerous and his candidacy for president should not be taken lightly. He cannot be allowed to gain momentum in Iowa, either within the Republican field or in preparation for a third-party general election run. Our country’s future literally hangs in the balance. Helping Paul win a victory in Iowa will not only be a wasted vote, but it will likely challenge the party’s wisdom of permitting the Hawkeye State to hold the first nominating contest in the future.

Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist, also expressed frustration that despite his party's spending victories this year, they enter 2012 risking a voter backlash.

"The White House is winning the spin wars," O'Connell said. "The White House message that Republicans are the party of Wall Street and the rich is gaining more ground than any message the Republicans have.

"I think it is going to be more difficult for the Republican Party than the Democratic Party next year because the spin coming out of the White House is that the Republicans are unwilling to compromise. If the Republicans don't sharpen their message, they could suffer at the ballot box."

"Republicans are not sure yet they can beat Obama, so they're focusing on the Senate," said Republican strategist and CivicForumPAC chairman Ford O'Connell. Last year his PAC supported the successful campaigns of Florida Governor Marco Rubio and Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Toomey.

Now, in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, conservative donors are waiting to see if Tea Party groups can coordinate their efforts, O'Connell said.

"If they can unify behind viable candidates, more money will flow to those candidates," O'Connell said. "The big question is, can they get there?"