Republican Pat Toomey continues to hold a modest advantage over Democrat Joe Sestak in the race to replace Arlen Specter as U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey attracting 45% of the vote, while Sestak earns 39%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate in the race, and 11% are undecided. The June 29 survey shows the race has changed little since the beginning of the month.
This is the seventh Rasmussen Reports survey of the race in 2010, and a review of prior results highlights just how stable it’s been to date. Toomey’s support has stayed in a very narrow range of 42% to 47%. Sestak’s support has showed more movement, ranging from a low of 36% to a high of 46%. However, most of that movement came as he surged to victory over Specter in the Democratic primary. Other than polling conducted just before and just after the primary election, the Democratic nominee’s support has remained between 36% and 38%.
Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans support Toomey, while 70% of Democrats say they’re voting for Sestak. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the Republican has a nine-point advantage. Toomey is now viewed Very Favorably by 17% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 13%. For Sestak, those numbers are 16% on the positive side and 16% on the negative side. For both men, the numbers are down a bit from earlier in the month. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on June 29, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.