The race is on. No, I’m not referring to the one between Republicans and Democrats; instead, I’m talking about the race between pollsters and media organizations to project this November’s GOP margin of victory. There have been some pretty smart analyses produced over the last several weeks, including ones by Cook, Rothenberg, RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and, most recently, the vaunted NBC political unit with its Voter Confidence Index.
However, in the quest to compare this year to other “wave” elections (see 1994, 1982 and 1974) they may have all missed the most important phenomenon of all: the growth rate of this potential electoral hurricane. We have all been so concerned about looking at this as some fixed point in time — by, for example, trying to compare this year to elections that took place 30 and 40 years ago — that we have forgotten to look back just 90 days ago. When one does, the only conclusion that you can have is the following: we are seeing an intensifying political storm that for Democrats is the electoral equivalent of a catastrophic hurricane.
To judge, let’s look at how this storm has intensified over the last 200 days.
We examined five key measures of voter anger: the percentage of voters who say the country is on the “wrong track,” the President’s disapproval rating, Congressional disapproval rating, the Generic Congressional ballot share for the party out of power (GOP) and the Party ID for the out-of-power party (GOP). All of these are negative measures for Democrats; that is, the higher the number the worse for the Democratic Party. (All data is from Pollster.com monthly averages for registered voters.) We then simply calculated the sum of these negative measures, which we will call — trumpets please — the LCG Voter Anger Index.
As you will note from the table below, the Voter Anger Index score in February of this year was 246. In May it rose to 250 and in August it stood at 259. In the last 90 days it has risen 9 points. The lesson here is not just that anger is high, it is that it is increasing with each passing day/week/month. The water temperature is not cooling; instead, it is getting warmer and feeding the storm. If it increases another 20 points by Election Day, the result would be catastrophic for the Democratic Party. We are talking about a 50 – 60 seat loss in the House and loss of the Senate.
|November 1994||February 2010||May 2010||August 2010|
|Generic ballot share for out-of-power party||41%||44%||44%||45%|
|Party ID for out-of-power party||35%||32%||34%||36%|
|LCG Voter Anger Index||245||246||250||259|
When we look at this from a historical perspective, we see that the anger level in February was already equal to 1994. In August of this year the Voter Anger Index was a full 14 points (or 6%) higher than it was in November of 1994. It is also important to note that this index is based on registered voters. Our assumption is that voter anger is even higher among likely voters and the measures we’ve seen — like the generic ballot — do suggest that.