An InsiderAdvantage/ WSB-TV poll of 514 registered likely voters in Tuesday’s GOP runoff for governor shows candidates Nathan Deal and Karen Handel statistically tied, 46 percent to 46 percent, with 8 percent of those surveyed still undecided.
The poll was conducted in accordance with the firm’s usual standard IVR telephone survey system the night of Thursday Aug. 5. The poll was weighted for age, race, and gender and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
InsiderAdvantage accurately polled the complete order of finish in the GOP general primary for governor, showing that Karen Handel would lead the pack and face Deal in a runoff. But InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, in his analysis, believes this race will be determined in the last 48 hours:
“Clearly this race is far closer than some of the private or partisan polls which have been released might suggest. A first glance at the crosstabs would suggest that Ms. Handel should be running away with this contest, in that she leads in virtually every age group. But a separate analysis conducted as part of the survey (and not used in weighting the poll) explains why I believe the race is close at this time. That information suggests that the further north in the state one looks, the stronger Deal is showing. Even in metro Atlanta, the two are statistically tied. This additional information, based on a question related to certainty of voting, suggests that Deal’s northeastern area of the state, which he represented for many years, will have the second-highest turnout behind metro Atlanta.
“Additionally, there is emerging an unusual trend of male voters potentially voting at the same level or even above that of female voters. This is a highly unusual set of circumstances and may be the result of the strategy of the Handel campaign to emphasize her gender while at the same time running an extremely tough contest.”