Tennessee Governor’s Race: GOP Nominee Favored

WSMV-TV Channel 4 News poll found that 89 percent of those surveyed were likely to vote in the GOP primary. But only a week before early voting, the number of likely voters who called themselves “undecided” was larger than the … Continued

Dem Insiders: Odds Increase for GOP House Takeover

The prospects of a GOP takeover of the House in upcoming midterm elections continue to rise according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. Insiders we asked, “On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely … Continued

First Read’s Top 10 Senate Takeovers

The Top 10 Senate takeovers (i.e., one party losing control of a Senate seat and the other party gaining it). Note: The number in parentheses is First Read’s ranking from last month. 1. North Dakota (1): John Hoeven (R), come on … Continued

South Dakota House Race: Noem (R) 49%, Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44%

Republican Kristi Noem’s post-primary bounce appears to be over, and she and incumbent Democrat Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin are now in much tighter race for South Dakota’s only House seat. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in South Dakota … Continued

Americans Oppose Federal Suit Against Arizona

Americans’ initial reactions to the U.S. Justice Department lawsuit against Arizona’s new illegal immigration law are more negative than positive, by a 50% to 33% margin. The fact that Americans are more likely to oppose than favor the federal government’s … Continued

The Right To Replace Byrd: Manchin (D) 53%, Capito (R) 39%

A special Senate election this November to replace the late Robert Byrd is still awaiting the green light from West Virginia’s attorney general, but popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin is the early leader in hypothetical matchups with two of his … Continued

Illinois U.S. Senate Race: Giannoulias (D) 40%, Kirk (R) 39%

The Illinois Senate race remains a virtual tie, but Republican Mark Kirk’s support appears to be trending down. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Illinois shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias earning 40% support to Kirk’s 39%. Nine … Continued

Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball: House Ratings Changes

SD-AL (Toss-up, from Leans D): “It’s not you, it’s me.” That is the line Republican nominee Kristi Noem should deliver to Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Herseth Sandlin is still personally popular in the state which sent her back to Congress in … Continued

Blago Trial Could Burn White House

It’s the trial the White House hopes you won’t watch. The federal corruption saga of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich has been rattling along during the sweltering Chicago summer, offering a daily dose of low-grade theatrics, low-impact bombshells and low-brow humor. The top … Continued